The Demise of The Blackberry?

I don't believe this for a minute, given how long BlackBerries have lasted and how much their users love them, but.... IDC has release a report saying that BlackBerries cannot last against push email solutions from Microsoft and Nokia. [via Teleclick.ca]

Here's why I don't believe it. The people who use BlackBerry, as far as I'm aware, are employees. Their employers have all the equipment and servers in place. While Microsoft and Nokia may succeed in signing on new business, existing RIM clients are probably unlikely to want to do a wholesale switchover. Unless there was some overwhelming benefit. And not just cost, I'm thinking.

Another factor? RIM stock. I know former RIM employees who became millionaires and retired. One of the founders of RIM set up an incredible science facility in the Waterloo, Canada area, where RIM is headquartered, with $95M of his own money, if I remember correctly. Then the brightest physics minds of the world were invited for fellowships.

It isn't just Canadians, particularly employees, who bought stock. No doubt loads of Americans, particularly executives, bought stock. With Microsoft stock sucking bollocks for about five years now, execs aren't going to let RIM stock decline just because Microsoft or Nokia comes out with a new competitve product. I'm sure of this. When Microsoft had hot stock, I found this same kind of attitude from executives I worked with. I despised Microsoft's strategies back then, but they defended the big M, even though I presented facts as to why they were not the better choice. No luck at all.

So even if Microsoft and Nokia come out with something better, they have a whole "Crackberry" culture to deal with. And with RIM moving into cool phones like the Blackberry Pearl and plans to get into VoIP, they are expanding their potential customer base. They may not have as deep pockets as Microsoft and Nokia, but they're deep enough to, say, make a few strategic acquisitions. And they are a wildly innovative company with a large "fan" base.

Written by ewriter on October 4th, 2006 with no comments.
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