November 17th, 2006
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I've been having a little fun with alexaholic, a type of Alexa mash-up that lets you compare estimated page view totals and traffic patterns for several websites over specific lengths of time.
Let's compare relative page view rankings for Skype, Vonage, Packet 8, Gizmo Project and SunRocket site views over a six month period, and then [...]
Written by Russell Shaw on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
Read more articles on Vonage and Skype and General and Providers and Packet 8 and Gizmo Project.
Skype Journal's Jim Courtney offers a profound, constructive criticism of Skype's failure to strategically and specifically articulate the newly released Skype 3.0's feature set and advantages.
I'll second my emotion to what Jim is saying here. Distilled, he points out that although an embargoed press release was available before launch, neither the press release nor [...]
Written by Russell Shaw on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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TalkPlus, a service that works with your existing mobile telephone as an application on your mobile that gives you a virtual number so you can dial out from any of your numbers, and all numbers will ring on your single mobile phone as launched their public beta.
The Sneak Peak beta program offers 250 minutes of free use for 30 days, as well as 250 minutes of free service after the Sneak Peek program is over if you become a subscriber. This offer is for a limited time only and for a limited number of participants. This Sneak Peek beta is TalkPlus’ first public test of their additional number service.
Unfortunately for me, TalkPlus does not support BlackBerry smartphones. In addition, TalkPlus currently does not support Treo Palm or Windows Mobile smartphones. While I am excited about this Voice 2.0 application, it is disappointing that a service pitched towards businesses, doctors, lawyers, and other service professionals, does not at first beta support the phones that these potential customers are most likely to have. In speaking with the TalkPlus PR team, these devices are in the roadmap for 2007, although not specific dates were given.
If you are one of the lucky ones who do not use one of the smartphones above, check out the TalkPlus beta here.
Written by Garrett Smith on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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TalkPlus , a service that works with your existing mobile telephone as an application on your mobile that gives you a virtual number so you can dial out from any of your numbers, and all numbers will ring on your single mobile phone as launched their public beta. The Sneak Peak beta program offers 250 minutes of free use for 30 days, as well as 250 minutes of free service after the Sneak Peek program is over if you become a subscriber. This offer is for a limited time only and for a limited number of participants. This Sneak Peek beta is TalkPlus first public test of their additional number service. Unfortunately for me, TalkPlus does not support BlackBerry smartphones. In addition, TalkPlus currently does not support Treo Palm or Windows Mobile smartphones. While I am excited about this Voice 2.0 application, it is disappointing that a service pitched towards businesses, doctors, lawyers, and other service professionals, does not at first beta support the phones that these potential customers are most likely to have. In speaking with the TalkPlus PR team, these devices are in the roadmap for 2007, although not specific dates were given. If you are one of the lucky ones who do not use one of the smartphones above, check out the TalkPlus beta here .
Written by Smith On VoIP - Insights on VoIP Products and Serv on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Following our piece yesterday about the continued growth of online advertising, let me add to Om’s practical perspective with my own take on where I believe the opportunity lies for those who are set on capturing some of those future ad dollars. What I’m about to say should be very obvious to most by now, but I believe it bears repeating.
Putting aside the issue of whether or not online ad spending will consistently grow unabated for the next 20 years, it’s safe to say that the total pie will be much bigger 10 to 20 years from now. That said, I firmly believe it is equally reasonable to assume that a big chunk, if not a majority, of future ad spending will go into online ad models & formats that do not yet exist. The big reason for this, in my mind, is due to the emergence of social media… and the fact that social media is not mass media.
As I have already written much about, social media is a new medium in its own right. As such, successful commercial exploitation of this new medium requires the development of new business/advertising models. This has been true for every other new medium that has been adopted at large scale throughout history. Yet, unlike mass media before it, social media introduces the very unique element of the previously passive audience becoming both producers and distributors of media. From a marketing perspective, this means that the people themselves will necessarily have to become an integral part of the brand communication strategies and processes.
Now, couple what I just mentioned with the prospect that the majority of future ad spending growth will come from traditional brand advertisers that, up until now, dominated traditional media budgets (e.g. TV & cable, radio, newspapers & magazines, etc.). But here’s the real quandary… while it’s easy to reallocate budgets, these brand advertisers face a problem because they cannot simply transport their traditional ad models (optimized for mass media) to the new world of social media. Further exacerbating the problem is the fact that even today’s dominant interactive ad platforms, like Google’s highly efficient AdWords/AdSense system, or Yahoo’s display ads, do not extend naturally into the social media space.
What this all boils down to is a growing and substantial market need for new ad models and platforms. Granted, there’s a good chance that the dominant players of today, like Google and Yahoo, will end up being the ones to develop the new models. But I’m an optimist, in the entrepreneurial sense… I believe it’s far more likely that new players will develop such innovative platforms. After all, 5 years ago, Google wasn’t even a player in online advertising.
Put another way… 10 years from now, my bet is that a substantial and material share of the huge online advertising pie will be captured by players we do not know of today. The real challenge, as famed author and management guru Geoffrey Moore points out, is to develop marketing solutions that are highly scalable for social media. I agree, and I also agree that such solutions are not in the marketplace today. But while Moore doubts there will ever be scalable solutions for social media, I on the other hand believe it’s a problem that actually has several fundamental solutions… many of which will start coming to market in 2007.
Written by Robert Young on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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We just got a press release from Fox Interactive which says that Peter Levinsohn is the new president of Fox Interactive. FIM insiders tell us that Levinsohn has often described the current changes in the media landscape as a “once in a lifetime opportunity.” Looks like he is willing to grab the brass ring.
Our sources say that Ross Levinsohn is planning to start a new kind of media operation, and there is considerable interest (and funding) for whatever his plans might be. We are also hearing from fairly reliable sources that Levinsohn plans to raise this money and buy-and-aggregate an online media property of high traffic sites.
Ross has done an incredible job over the past couple of years launching News Corp.’s Internet division from scratch and building one of the most innovative destinations on the web. His strategic vision helped us to establish a strong Internet presence in a very short time and we are enormously grateful for his many contributions. I know Ross will be successful in whatever he chooses to do next and we hope there is an opportunity for us to participate.
Ross is the second high profile executive to leave Fox Interactive. Mark Jung, who was chief operating office at Fox Interactive left the company recently for parts unknown.
In light of the recent ouster of Jon Miller at AOL, it seems to me that the old media companies are putting old media guys in charge of their new media empires, a move as risky as skating on a lake. You just don’t know where the ice is thin!
Previously: The Sly Fox
Written by Om Malik on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Now come the days when gamers unleash their inner Cartman, lining up outside department stores and murmuring “Kehm-ON!” every few seconds through gritted teeth as they wait to buy the Nintendo Wii (in US stores on the 19th) or the Sony PS3 (hitting US shelves tomorrow) or both, camping there if necessary, occasionally enduring drive-by shootings, and even hiring the homeless to wait in line.
Over the last few months, I’ve already made my take on the next-gen console wars fairly plain: Xbox 360 will perform strongly, fueled by its one year headstart, while the Wii will roar; after an all-too-brief crush of purchasing by Sony ideologues, the PS3 will fall far behind in sales, and meet disaster, relative to expectation. If I had to guess the next-gen install base in the US by the same time next year, right now I’d say it plays out this way: 360 and Wii taking some 40% of the market each, and PS3 with a partly 20%.
Rather than editorialize any further, I’ll turn over the microphone to three top game industry analysts, to get their own take on the season. After the break, valuable insights on the hard numbers behind the waiting lines, from a trio of gentlemen who know the economics of gaming from the inside.
* * *
David Riley, Senior Marketing Manager, NPD
The playing field now:
Install base (units sold in retail) through October ‘06, according to NPD:
PlayStation 2 - 35 mm
Xbox - 15 mm
GameCube - 11mm
Xbox 360 - 2.9mm
This season’s forecast:
It’s too early to tell until we have definitive shipment numbers but it goes without saying that we can expect both the Wii and the PS3 to fly off the shelves this holiday season. However, don’t let the buzz around the two new consoles detract your attention away from the Xbox 360, which has several factors working in its favor. Beyond the fact that it’s Live service is phenomenal, it’s had a year to mature in retail, working through various hardware issues and building an impressive library of titles. All of this should help boost its install base in the U.S. significantly.
* * *
Alexis Madrigal, DFC Intelligence
This season’s forecast:
The Wii and PS3… will be in fairly limited supply and the key goal will be creating “buzz.” With the Xbox 360 the system has built a solid library of software and there is a real opportunity to continue building on the installed base. In that sense, I don’t think any one system will be the strongest. If you are looking at buzz it is the new products, if you are looking at a new system with a big software library and an established track record it is Xbox 360. Throw in the PS2, DS and PSP [handheld consoles] and consumers have a great deal of options to choose from this holiday season.
Mistakes and missed opportunities:
It would be easy to point to the PS3’s limited launch shipments and delay in Europe, but that will most likely be pretty minor in the scheme of things. The biggest potential missed opportunity would be if this holiday season Microsoft failed to capitalize on building a lead on the PS3 before it gets a chance to really get rolling. However, we won’t know if that occurred until next year.
The long view:
We try not to speculate on the whole market share and winners-versus-losers game. By November 2007 market share among the three major players will probably be a pretty meaningless figure. It probably will not be until 2008 until we can make some meaningful judgments about the long term position of the different systems.
* * *
Billy Pidgeon, Program Manager, Consumer Markets: Gaming, IDC
This season’s forecast:
While the PS3 will be number one on the wish lists of most core gamers, short supply will be snapped up quickly, leaving latent demand unfulfilled until 2007. Microsoft Xbox 360 will benefit from PS3 shortages and strong software support of titles such as Gears of War to provide a solid alternative to PS3 for those who must have a new high end console.
Due to pricing, novelty and a stronger supply than PS3, the Nintendo Wii will practically be an impulse buy this holiday for core gamers looking for a new kick and for family households. The Wii will be the hot gift this year. Sony’s PS2, PSP and Nintendo DS will also provide alternatives for loyalists who can’t get the PS3 or Wii they wanted.
Mistakes and missed opportunities:
Microsoft could have used more strong titles staggered from launch into holiday 2006 to keep momentum into the end of the year. Gears of War is a system seller and there are great titles like Ghost Recon Advance Warfighter and Rainbow Six, but 360 needed a stronger library sooner. Halo 3 would have done the trick, announcing the beta release was a smart move.
Sony’s PS3 launch run-up was a train wreck abetted by the media. The press wanted to give Sony a smackdown, and Sony gave them every opportunity. Sony was overconfident in PS3 production planning, and the worst mistake made was the one Sony had the least control over: poor yields due to component defects led to extremely limited supply. Sony should have been pushing PSP and PS2 harder as backup. PS2 still has great legs with mass market titles like Guitar Hero II.
The long view:
Supply constraints will skew the market share for the current console generations. Sony cannot make enough PS3 to take first place, but can be a front runner in 2008. Xbox 360 and Nintendo will be able to build strong installed bases with impressive libraries by fourth quarter 2007. This time next year we’ll see a real competition for market share.
Written by Wagner James Au on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Hot off the presses, Jason Calacanis has apparently quit AOL - hours after his boss and mentor, Jonathan Miller, was shown the door by Richard Parsons. It's really should come as no surprise Calacanis is moving on because it was only a question of when, not if, given he's an wealthy entrepreneur who is working for a large corporation - and everyone knows entrepreneurs don't thrive in large, bureaucratic corporations, right? So what does Calacanis do next? Well, clearly he believes in the online advertising model given his excitement about the IAB numbers earlier this week. The question is whether his severance agreement with AOL precludes him from working for a user-generated company or, for that matter, an online company that generates revenue from advertising. Tags: Jason Calacanis, AOL
Written by Mark Evans on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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An anonymous tip dropped into our inbox, claiming that Jason Calacanis, one of the co-founders of Weblogs Inc., and architect of the new Netscape has resigned from AOL, following the resignation of Jon Miller.
On his blog, Jason says no comment. When we IMed him, he offered the same, No Comment. If the news is indeed true - we are still trying to nail down the details - then AOL might have lost one of the handful of people who were outspoken enough to shake AOL from its polite slumbering ways. Not many saw eye-to-eye with Jason, but most agreed that his heart was in the right place.
On the ouster of Miller, we are as confounded as you are. Falco, despite his resume, isn’t the kind of executive you would put in charge when your main rival is someone as nimble as Google, or as cash rich as Microsoft or as dogmatic as Yahoo. Sudden executive changes when a company is in transition to a new free model can cause anxiety amongst rank-and-file.
Falco’s appointment is another proof of the bumbling ways of Time Warner, a company known to have the uncanny ability to turn a pot of gold into a bucket of mud water. On a side note, just wondering how the great Time Warner movie machine is doing these days in terms of profits.
Written by Om Malik on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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If you're looking for a job at Google in Waterloo, Ont. (or RIM, Sandvine, MKS, etc.), head down to the Playdium in Mississauga, Ont. on Nov. 22 when Communitech's holds a talent recruitment event from 5 p.m. to 7 p.m. Among the guest speakers are Roger Skubowius, Google's manager in Waterloo; John Baker, president and CEO with Desire2Learn; and Iain Klugman, president and CEO with Communitech. "There's no stopping Waterloo Region's incredible growth," Klugman said. "Our tech community is in high demand for key talent, from small entrepreneurial tech ventures to tech juggernauts like RIM." Tags: Google, Waterloo, Communitech
Written by Mark Evans on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
Read more articles on Google and Main Page.
The mesh meet-up last night was a rousing success with the Irish Embassy pub teeming with more than 100 people. It was great to see such a great turnout - something that reflects the growing excitement within the local Web community. (or at least their enthusiasm to hoist back a pint or two!) The highlight was Rob Schaumer's embrace of b5media's Darren Rowse, who had mentioned the idea of needing a hug when he arrived in Canada after a long journey from Australia. Personally, it was great to finally meet people such as Tony Hung (Deep Jive Interests) and Ben Mercier. It was also good to see people such as Michael O'Connor-Clarke, who has himself a new dream job at Thornley Fallis; Sacha Chua, Jim Courtney, ConceptShare's Scott Brooks and Leila Boujnane. In terms of mesh '07, we got lots of terrific feedback/suggestions about speakers and panels.
Update: It looks the term "off the record" could be joined by "off the blog" as a tool used by people to indicate their comments are not for public consumption. I've heard "off the blog" so often recently, I've started to use it myself now...:)
Update II: Special thanks to Leesa Barnes for doing a ton of interviews during the mesh meet-up. Leesa will be putting together a bunch of mini-podcasts that will be posted on the mesh site soon.
Tags: mesh07, darren rowse, mesh
Written by Mark Evans on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
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Yesterday, the Canadian federal government announced it would overrule that nation's CRTC (Canadian Radio-Television and Communications Commission) and de-regulate VoIP.
Last year, the CRTC regulated VoIP by enacting pricing restrictions on traditional telephone companies and the rates they were able to chare without regulatory approval. The fear was that in a regulation-free environment, these services [...]
Written by Russell Shaw on November 17th, 2006 with no comments.
Read more articles on Vonage and General and Regulatory.